Week 3 - New York Giants vs. Cleveland Browns

New York Giants vs Cleveland Browns - Not So Brief Armchair Breakdown

Hello fellow fantasy football degenerates.

Back again by somewhat popular demand? For those who took part in discussing my armchair breakdown of the Thursday night game I appreciate you coming back. I’ve tried to take some suggestions from all of those who commented but keep in mind, I’m not an expert and this is mostly to just stir up conversation and give us all more content to talk about before kickoff. Let me know if you agree, or don’t agree or just enjoy reading the post and want more!

Also, those of you who started Stevenson last night; I’m feeling your pain. Getting off to a -.70 start to the week isn’t great. I can take the L on that one and will be filling up the bleach bottle in preparation for my extreme ass beating I’m about to take in that league on Sunday.

But onto the breakdown!

New York Giants (+6) vs. Cleveland Browns (-7)

38.5 point Over/Under

New York Giants

Daniel Jones - Welcome back to the Daniel Jones experience! You never know what you will get week to week with this guy and I am pretty sure the entire New York organization (along with their fans and possibly even Jones’s own family) is regretting that 4 year/$160 million contract. Now Jones looked significantly more improved in Week 2 and thankfully got the “okay” to run more freely this game. Maybe this is the start of the turnaround or a repeat of the Cinderella season where they found their way to the playoffs. Right now, Jones is completing 54% of his passes (down from his career average of 63%) and averaging 182 yards (down from his career average of 208 yards per game) with 1 TD and 1 INT per game in the air and 23.5 yards per game on the ground. On top of his below career average stats so far this year, he will be facing a top 10 pass and run defense in the Cleveland Browns. I think that he will have to work the short/intermediate game to work the ball down the field against this defense which will result in a higher completion percentage but around the same Fantasy output as he usually has. Watching Jones play QB is like those oddly satisfying videos that come up on Reddit. You don’t want to watch and it grosses you out but you need to make it to the end to find out. I think at the end of the season we will all be sitting here saying “why does Jones continue to have a starting job in the NFL?”.

Projection: 25/40 200 yards 1 TD 1 INT/ 5 attempts 40 yards 1TD 1 Fumble

Devin Singletary - Going into this year I was extremely high on Devin Singletary. From his performance last year with the Texans to the start of his career in Buffalo, he has been a consistent fantasy contributor and an all around good NFL running back. Now stuck behind a patchwork NY Giants O-Line, we saw in Week 1 what his floor can be with Daniel Jones behind center. He has maintained his workload in both games getting right around 16 total opportunities on the ground and through the air combined. Singletary can still be an efficient back, however; he might have some tough sledding ahead of his matchup this week going against the front 7 in Cleveland. With all of that said, I do think he can be started this week in deeper leagues as a flex option but if you have better replacements I would not blame you for looking another direction.

Projection: 15 attempts 60 yards/4 targets 3 receptions 22 yards

Malik Nabers - Heading into this season I was the highest on Nabers compared to the other top projected WRs in the draft. After week 1, it looked like I was a genius and knew what I was talking about. But let’s pump the brakes after MHJ looked like his dad and had a breakout Week 2. With that said, Nabers did his best to not get outdone and turned in a truly elite WR3 overall week. Getting 16 targets on 26 routes (36% target share?! through his first two weeks) is amazing. That is basically Cooper Kupp level volume when he won his Triple Crown a few years ago. This week, going against a tougher opponent in Cleveland; Nabers will most likely take a step back in production. I also believe that NY doesn't want to pepper Malik with that many targets per game as eventually he will wear out being on the smaller side for a receiver. Still, he is the unquestionable Alpha in this offense and will continue to see his volume every week.

Projection: 10 targets 6 receptions 70 yards 1TD

Darius Slayton - So far Darius Slayton has been super consistent in 2024. He has had 4 targets in each of the first two games and has caught 3 of them (75%) each time. He is averaging right around 10 yards per reception and an abysmal .68 yards per route run so far this year. We all know Slayton as that boom or bust deep threat guy who will absolutely take one or two deep shots to the house this year. I do not see this as one of those times with the combination of a low scoring total and the Brown’s top 10 pass defense.

Projection: 4 targets 3 receptions 30 yards

Wan’Dale Robinson - I got caught in this trap last year and refuse to do it again this year. Wan’Dale will have a few games here or there where his target volume is crazy but his yards are middling. In a PPR league, those games are amazing for a Flex option but the issue is finding which games those are. We have already seen the pendulum swing both ways for him this year. Week 1 he had 12 targets and 6 receptions but for 44 yards and 0 TDs. He also had a rush attempt for 14 yards as well. But following up with Week 2 we saw his targets get cut down to a ⅓ of Week 1 and his receptions as well. Luckily, he found the endzone but without that we are talking about a WR40 or below finish that week. I believe Wan’Dale will continue to fluctuate between 6 - 12 opportunities a game between the ground and the air. If we extrapolate that out, that would be somewhere between 23.25 and 46.5 yards per game using his 7.75 yard per reception average through two weeks and his 50% reception rate. I am sure there will be one or two weeks where he breaks a long run and ends up with close to 100 yards but I am not playing Russian roulette with him to get those few games.

Projection: 7 targets 4 receptions 30 yards

Theo Johnson - He has been on the field for 86% of the snaps in Week 1 and 79% of the snaps in Week 2. Cleveland has a middle of the road defense when it comes to taking away opposing TEs so we might see some more production this week than we did from him last week (goose egg). I had higher hopes for him so far this season after watching him in Hard Knocks and seeing how the coaching staff was talking him up but the injury in pre-season might have derailed his development a little bit.

Projection: 2 targets 1 reception 15 yards

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Deshaun Watson - Wow, what a fall from grace. Last year he played only 6 games and did not look consistently great at any point in that season. We heard he had an injury to his shoulder and that might have contributed to his lack of production. We are only two weeks into the season and there are questions surrounding his shoulder again and some revisions in his contract that allows the Browns to potentially reclaim the guaranteed money if he was to get suspended again. To me, it looks like he either has lost interest in football or lost the ability. Not 100% sure which of the two options it is, however; it is coming at the cost of Fantasy production for his receivers. Right now, he is averaging a 58% completion percentage through the first two weeks (down from his career average of 66%). Through those first two games he is averaging 177.5 yards through the air with .5 TDS and 1 INT compared to his 251 yard average over his career. Something is wrong in Cleveland. The Giants are not a defense to be feared, however; if Watson cannot have a bounce back game against them this week he might never come close to the form he was before his suspension.

Projection: 25/41 230 yards 2 TDs 1 INT/ 5 attempts 30 yards

Jerome Ford - I am not sure what is happening with this backfield. In Week 1 Ford played 75% of the snaps and looked like he was going to be the bellcow we had hoped for this off-season. Then comes Week 2 where he is on the field for only 44% of the snaps with only 7 rushing attempts but averaged 9.14 yards per carry! Compare that to his back-up/committee back in D’Onta Foreman who was on the field for 38% of the snaps only but carried the ball twice as many times as Ford to a 3 yard per carry average. I am legitimately not sure what is going on here and maybe Cleveland was going for the less utilized “cold hand” approach? He looks great when he has the ball in his hand and the offense desperately needs someone who can gain chunk yardage as opposed to the plodding style that Strong and now Foreman are running. I am hoping against the Giants defense that Ford is allowed a bit more opportunity which will result in more production.

Projection: 14 attempts 84 yards 1 TD/4 targets 3 receptions 18 yards

D’onta Foreman - Maybe the Browns always wanted Foreman to be the guy but his pre-season injury derailed that for a bit? I am still not sure what to expect in this backfield. I believe Ford is the better player and has more “juice” but Cleveland has not always been the best in terms of putting together a winning formula on the field. Again, I am hoping that Ford goes back to being more of the featured back this week but honestly it is all just a guess.

Projection: 7 attempts 35 yards/1 target 1 reception 7 yards

Amari Cooper - Is this the game that Cooper comes back to life? That will all depend on Deshaun Watson. Cooper is on the field a ton (95% and 88% of snaps in Weeks 1 and 2) and has the target share to show for it (21%) but the catch percentage (29%) is the worst of his career through the first two weeks of the season. The Giants are a defense where I think you can get right against with their lack of shutdown corners and a porous defense overall. With all of that said, a lot of this depends on Watson. Cooper can only do so much when only 6 of his targets were considered catchable this year.

Projection: 10 targets 7 receptions 90 yards 1 TD

Jerry Jeudy - One of the biggest surprises of the off-season has to be Jerry Jeudy. When he was in Denver most had written him off as a bust. Maybe a great college route runner and technician that just could not carry over to the NFL. Maybe it was Russell Wilson holding him back or the offense that they tried to run over in Denver but it seems like he might have gotten a breath of life into him in Cleveland. He is averaging 80% snap share through the first two weeks of the season and commanding a 19% target share as well. His 57% reception rate is not the best but definitely better than his contemporary lined up on the other side. Jeudy is a top 36 WR right now in Half PPR leagues and is quite the surprise considering his ADP (126 overall!). He has also been dealing with a knee injury but has been able to log full practices throughout the past few weeks. Look for him to continue to be the short/intermediate guy for Watson who is struggling with accuracy overall but especially deep.

Projection: 8 targets 6 receptions 70 yards 1 TD

Final = Cleveland Browns 24 - New York Giants 20