Week 3 - Washington Commanders vs. Cincinatti Bengals

Washington Commanders vs Cincinnati Bengals - Not So Brief Breakdown!

Washington Commanders (+7.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

47.5 point Over/Under

Jayden Daniels (QB #18 in 4 PT Leagues) - Watching the games that Jayden Daniels has played so far is different from reading the boxscores. At times, you see the Heisman winning QB from a year ago. Then there are times when he looks exactly like what he is; an NFL rookie. So far he is completing 75% of his pass attempts through the first two weeks along with 205 passing yards per game. Currently, he averages 5.07 yards per rush attempt and has rushed it an average of 13 times per game in the first two weeks. It has been rough sledding for this offense so far as a whole, however; with very little pre-season and Daniels leading the team as a rookie we should have expected some growing pains. The good news is he has yet to throw an interception and has a higher completion percentage through his first two NFL games than he did through his career at LSU. The bad news is he is yet to throw his first passing TD this season (Caleb Williams was the first rookie QB to throw a TD this season). Right now, Vegas has his line at 195.5 passing yards, .5 passing TDs and 46.5 rushing yards.. The Bengals are the top defense this year in terms of passing yards allowed and rank towards the bottom ⅓ in terms of rush defense. I see the Vegas passing line as more of an indictment of Kliff’s offense through the first two weeks compared to an indictment on Daniels as a QB.

Projection: 20/35 185 passing yards 1TD 1INT/11 Attempts 60 yards

Brian Robinson (RB #24 in Half PPR Scoring) - Robinson is picking up right where he left off last year as he is averaging 14.5 rushing attempts, 86.5 rush yards per game and .5 TDs. If that is not enough, he is also averaging 3.5 receptions per game through the first two weeks for 26 yards. By rights and by statistics, he should be the workhorse back of this offense that very rarely leaves the field. However, he has not cracked 60% snap share yet. Part of this might have to do with the fact they were run out of Tampa Bay early so Robinson was left off the field. In their second game Robinson saw more action but the team had to fight until the end as they were playing from ahead and then behind constantly. He put up monster numbers in Week 2 so at the very least I would expect a slight uptick in snap % this week unless they are down big early. In order for Robinson to eclipse the 20 carry mark, the Commanders will have to find themselves in the lead early in the second half without fear of giving it back up. Right now, Vegas has his lines at 53.5 rushing yards, 10.5 receiving yards and 1.5 receptions.

Projection: 14 attempts 70 yards 1TD/4 targets 2 receptions 20 yards

Austin Ekeler (RB #36 in Half PPR Scoring) - So heading into this year I was totally out on Ekeler and not much has changed my point of view. He is currently averaging 49.5 receiving yards per game on 3.5 receptions. The most condemning statistic for Ekeler so far is the fact that he has not broken 55% snap share as of yet and has only touched the ball 6 times in Week 1 and 11 times in Week 2 (8.5 average touches per week). Even with the first game of the season being a catch-up come from behind type of game, he was not utilized the way he has been in the past when he was on the Chargers. Vegas set his lines at 21.5 rushing yards, 17.5 yards receiving and 2.5 receptions. I would infer that Vegas is also not high on him from the usage he received during his first two games and even more so that this is projected to be a blowout by the Bengals. He will not be fantasy relevant this year unless there is an injury to Brian Robinson. With Daniels rushing ability and Robinson’s ascension to the fringe RB1ish territory, He will continue to give Robinson a rest when he needs it and will be the change of pace back (though he has lost a step since 2022).

Projection: 5 attempts 30 yards/5 targets 3 receptions 30 yards

Terry McLaurin (WR #86 in Half PPR Scoring) - Well could he be the biggest bust of 2024? It is definitely possible after the first two weeks of the season. Combine that with the fact that they traded their former first round pick to the Eagles for pennies, it would have seemed that McLaurin might finally break through the WR2 ceiling. Unfortunately, it has not come anywhere close to that hope as he has finished as the WR78 and WR53 in Half PPR scoring through the first two weeks. The good news? Coaches said they were going to manufacture touches for him this week and he increased his snap percentage from 81% to 92% in Week 2. He is up from his career 62% reception rate to 67% this season. Considering how bad his stats are the analytics show a slightly more encouraging sign as he is still top 45 in Air Yards and Top 10 in Air Yards Share. He also increased his targets from 4 in Week 1 to 8 in Week 2. The bad news? McLaurin is averaging 3.95 Half PPR points per game so far and will be going up against one of the best pass defenses in the league. So what can we expect from him? Vegas has set his lines at 48.5 receiving yards and 3.5 receptions. Vegas says he has the 6th best chance to score a TD this game right behind Chase Brown (+220) but I think the coaching staff is going to do everything they can to get Terry touches tonight. Whether or not that results in a fantasy relevant night, that is still to be seen.

Projection: 13 targets 7 receptions 55 yards 1TD

Zach Ertz (TE #17 in Half PPR Scoring) - Zach Ertz is like a mosquito. Something that seemingly inconsequential should not annoy you that much from week to week during the fantasy season. Whether it is his age, skill level or offense that he is in; he should not be a viable option. With all of that said, he is averaging 4 targets and 45 receiving yards per game through the first two weeks, while registering an 88% reception percentage. He ranks 8th in Air Yards in the TE position so far this year with 32.4% (#1) Air Yard percentage for his year and a 9.9 ADOT. Continue to see Ertz on the field around 70% of the snaps and expect him to be targeted 4 - 6 times a game depending on script. Vegas has his line set at 25.5 receiving yards with 2.5 receptions. Kliff loves Zach Ertz and loves throwing screens and horizontal passes to them in the flats. That might be the only reason why he is fantasy relevant and not necessarily his skills.

Projection: 6 targets 4 receptions 36 yards

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Joe Burrow (QB #29 in 4pt TD Leagues) - Coming off a year full of injuries, we might have had too high of expectations for Joe Burrow in his first week. Obviously, the showing against the New England Patriots left a lot to be desired. With that said, he was going into the game without his WR2 and with a WR1 who had dollar signs on his mind more than the game. Even with all of that he was able to complete 72% of his passes in Week 1 and rushed 4 times for 15 yards. In Week 2 he was able to improve parts of his game as he threw for 258 yards and 2 TDs in a loss to the KC Chiefs. Throughout the first two weeks he is averaging 211 yards per game and 1 TD with a 68% competition percentage along with 0 INTs. The Bengals have been slow starters under Zac Taylor since he took over posting a 1-9 total in Weeks 1 and 2 over the past 5 years. Expect bigger things to come for Burrow especially if he can avoid major injury this year. Keep in mind, he did say in preseason that the wrist injury was more severe than he let on and he expects it to progressively heal throughout the first month or so of the season. Vegas has set his line at 261.5 passing yards with 1.5 TDs. It seems that Vegas is expecting this to be an easy W for the Bengals which will allow Burrow to get back in sync with Chase and Higgins.

Projection: 21/28 280 yards 3 TDs/4 attempts 15 yards

Zack Moss (RB #35 in Half PPR Scoring) - Moss is a plodder who had his breakout last year at the age of 25 in his forth full NFL season. All of the signs were there this off-season when he was signed to a 2 year/$8million contract this past offseason putting him solely as the RB1 in an offense run by Joe Burrow. I was and still am on the side that Chase Brown has more “juice” and Moss has been a career backup in two places for a reason. Right now, he is averaging 10.5 rushing attempts per game in the first two weeks with 39 rush yards and a middling average of 2.5 receptions per game for 15 yards. He is on the field a lot at 72.5% snap share so far. He had a TD against the Patriots in garbage time in Week 1, however; without that he would have 12.3 Half PPR points so far which would place him around RB 46. With that said, Vegas expects the Bengals to get up big early and run out the clock late as they have set his line at 51.5 rushing yards, 13.5 receiving yards and 2.5 receptions. He also has the highest Vegas odds to score a TD tonight (-170).

Projection: 15 attempts 54 yards/3 targets 2 receptions 17 yards

Ja’Marr Chase (WR #68 in Half PPR Scoring) - Well, I guess holding out doesn’t pay off. Chase has looked subpar so far this season along with his holdout counterparts (Aiyuk looks horrible and CeeDee is not what he was last year). The drama in the offseason and now two subpar performances have marred his 2024 season. He has played an average of 88% of snaps through the first two weeks and has been targeted 5.5 times per game with 48.5 receiving yards per game. He has yet to find the endzone which has been his elite characteristic as a WR1 in fantasy since he was a rookie. Over his career, he has averaged a TD every 9.6 receptions. He has currently gone 24 receptions without a TD. Vegas has set his line at a crazy 80.5 receiving yards and 6.5 receptions with the second highest Vegas odds to score TD tonight. Washington is a bottom ⅓ pass defense and is allowing 227.5 yards per game. Expect Chase to have a monster bouce back.

Projection: 10 targets 8 receptions 140 yards 2TDs

Tee Higgins - Welcome back to the Tee Higgins experience Part IV! Two weeks of DNP due to a mysterious injury. Hard to gauge this guy as he has missed the first two weeks of the season after declaring himself the healthiest he has felt in years the afternoon before he hit the injury report. Last year he was also unable to stay on the field due to injuries as well and has yet to finish a full season since he was drafted in 2020.  Vegas has his line set at 44.5 receiving yards with 3.5 receptions. Over his career he averaged 63.5 receiving yards per game on 4.4 receptions per game. Honestly, Vegas should have an over/under on how many quarters he will finish tonight instead.

Projection: 8 targets 5 receptions 60 yards 1TD (4 Quarters Played)

Mike Gesicki (TE #10 in Half PPR Scoring) - We are able to find out whether Gesicki, who is on his 3rd team in 7 years, was a product of necessity or a part of the offensive game plan tonight. Currently, he is the TE10 while averaging 41% snap share and 6.5 targets per game with 5 receptions and 54.5 receiving yards per game. With Higgins coming back (hopefully) and Chase no longer worrying about his contract this season; this could be Gesicki’s worst game this year. Over his career he has averaged 2.7 receptions with 29.7 yards per game. Lo and behold, Vegas has set his lines at 25.5 receiving yards with 2.5 receptions. I believe that his involvement was more out of necessity than scheme from what we know about Zac Taylor’s offensive scheme in Cincinnati (see Burrow’s history of TEs). Especially because right now the Commanders rank 1st in least amount of fantasy points allowed to TEs (granted they’ve faced Cade Otton and Theo Johnson but still).

Projection: 5 targets 3 receptions 29 yards

Final = Cincinnati Bengals 28 - Washington Commanders 17