Week 6 - Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears (London Game)

London Morning - Jacksonville Jaguars vs Chicago Bears - Not So Brief Armchair Analysis

Ready for some 930am (630am West Coast Time) Sunday morning football? I don't know about all of you, but I don't mind the London games. It's a cool gimmick and a way for the popularity of the sport to increase. And with popularity increasing, Fantasy Football leagues will also increase. It is a win-win for all of us degenerates (minus the early morning wake up). But without further delay; here is the not so brief breakdown for this week' London showdown!

Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5 - 21.5 IMPLIED POINT TOTAL) vs. Chicago Bears (-1.5 - 23 IMPLIED POINT TOTAL) - [Jaguars moved from +2.5 to +1.5 in 24 hours. Smart money has betting Jacksonville to cover]

44.5 point over/under - Over/Under up 1 point in last 24 hours

Trevor Lawrence

QB #19 on the Year - 14.4 fantasy points per game

230.5 passing yard Over/Under (-114) - 1.5 TD Over/Under (+136)

The Trevor Lawrence experience has been plagued with consistent underperforming and excuses for why. First, it was Urban Meyer's fault. Then it was his WR core. Then it was his defense. Now, what is it? The Jags are 1-4 (should be 0-5) right now and a lot of that has to do with the underperforming offense. Now, not everything is on Lawrence but as the franchise QB who just got paid; a lot of it falls on him regardless. Over his career, Lawrence has averaged right around 230 passing yards and 1.2 passing TDs per game. Guess what, Lawrence is averaging 220 passing yards (295.5 at home vs. 169.7 on the road) with 1.2 TDs and .4 INTs (should be more as he ranks 15th in turnover worthy plays this year) per game so far this season. Outside of the statistics, Lawrence has had flashes of what makes him worth $240 million but overall his inconsistency and inaccuracy stunts drives and loses points for their offense. He is completing 59% of his pass attempts which is the lowest in his career since that infamous Urban Meyer led rookie season. With all of that said, something about London gives Lawrence super powers. Maybe that is why they are trying to relocate permanently across the pond. Looking at his stats in London, he is averaging 268.5 passing yards on 65% completion rate with 1TD and .5INTs per game. Lawrence has traveled to London 3 separate times in his career so far so I suspect this will not affect his performance as it might affect other players who have not made the in-season trip across the pond.

Projection: 23/31 282 passing yards 2TDs 1INT

Travis Etienne

RB #26 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 10.04 fantasy points per game

41.5 Rushing Yards Over/Under - 17.5 Receiving Yards Over/Under - +145 Anytime TD Scorer (2nd Highest in Game)

What a fall from grace for Etienne. Last year, he was a true workhorse seeing the field around 75% of the time and receiving over 90% of the RB opportunities in that backfield. This year; he has dropped to 60% of the snaps this season so far but has been dealing with a supposed “shoulder” injury. His rushing yards average has dropped from 59.29 yards per game last year to 46.2 yards per game this year (34.5 rushing yards at home vs. 54 rushing yards on the road). His attempts have also dropped as expected going from 15.7 rush attempts last year to 10.6 attempts per game this year and has only found the endzone twice on the ground. His only saving grace in 2024 has been his passing game work as he is averaging 18.2 receiving yards per game (24.5 yards at home vs. 14 yards on the road) on 4.4 targets and 3.2 receptions per game. Right now, he is the RB #26 on the year in Half PPR scoring formats averaging 10.04 fantasy points per game. This is such a difficult projection as it all depends on who you believe in. Do you believe in Etienne to bounce back even though he is not the prototypical workhorse build or skillset? Do you believe in Bigsby taking the second year step forward from his rookie season?

Projection: 12 attempts 55 yards/6 targets 5 receptions 37 yards 1TD

Tank Bigsby

RB #31 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 8.52 fantasy points per game

38.5 Rushing Yards Over/Under - +190 Anytime TD Scorer (5th Highest in Game)

The next hype train has arrived at the station! I remember going into the 2023 Season everyone was saying “Tank is going to take over Etienne’s job”. Well, after his Week 1 debacle; he barely ever saw the field after that leading to Etienne finishing as the RB #3 in Half PPR Scoring last year. Starting this year, it looked like history was going to repeat itself with Bigsby getting 0% of the snaps. Slowly, he has crept up week-to-week, increasing his snap percentage until last week when he truly broke out. The coaching staff can say that Etienne is still their RB1 all they want, but the metrics paint a somewhat different picture. In Week 5, Bigsby only saw 40% snap share in the game, however; he saw 45% of the RB opportunities. I do think Etienne is injured, however; that might not be all that is determining the split. Etienne has the prototypical workhorse back build but for whatever reason he has always seemed to lack power and hasn’t had many explosive plays. Bigsby is averaging 54.6 rushing yards (50.5 at home vs. 57.33 on the road) on 6.8 attempts with a .4 Rushing TD per game average. He is solidly the RB #31 on the year in Half PPR scoring averaging 8.52 fantasy points per game. It is shocking how close his and Etienne’s averages are together proving that this really might be leading to a timeshare.

Projection: 10 attempts 47 yards/1 target 1 reception 10 yards

Christian Kirk

WR #36 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 8.44 fantasy points per game

46.5 Receiving Yards Over/Under - 4.5 Receptions Over/Under - +240 Anytime TD Scorer (8th Highest in Game)

What a weird year for Christian Kirk. He started off being non-existent on the field in the first few weeks then has scored over 10+ fantasy points in Half PPR scoring over the past 3 weeks. There is concern that BTJ has overtaken Kirk as the WR1 of the team (rightfully so) and when Engram comes back, both he and Kirk will be operating in the same areas of the field. For now, Kirk should have a solid floor but a pretty low ceiling. The Jags offense is what is really holding Kirk back. They have regressed from last year when they were running about 66 plays per game to about 57 now. Those 9 plays would normally turn into 1 or 2 extra targets for Kirk in past years. He is averaging 51.4 receiving yards (43.5 yards at home vs. 56.7 yards on the road) on 6.6 targets and 4.2 receptions with .2 receiving TDs per game this year. He is the WR #36 in Half PPR scoring this year averaging 8.44 fantasy points per game, however; I do think he falls outside of the Top 36 by the end of the year. Vegas set his receiving line at 46.5 yards and 4.5 receptions for this game. They put him at +240 odds to score a TD which would be the 8th highest in the game. It appears they are at least as unsure of him moving forward as most of us are.

Projection: 7 targets 4 receptions 49 yards

Brian Thomas Jr.

WR #7 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 14 fantasy points per game

57.5 Receiving Yards Over/Under - 4.5 Receptions Over/Under - +170 Anytime TD Scorer (4th Highest in Game)

For those of you who were high on BTJ heading into this season; I tip my hat to you. I was super low on BTJ (ranking him behind Ladd and Rome for my season long projections) but boy was I proven wrong. He is currently the WR #7 on the year in Half PPR scoring averaging 14 fantasy points per game. His 79.4 receiving yards per game (108 yards at home vs. 60.3 yards on the road) ranks 9th in the league so far this season. He is averaging 6.8 targets and 4.4 receptions with a .6 Receiving TD per game average. He has looked great and is arguably the 2nd best rookie WR for fantasy purposes this season. My only concern is that his snap percentage has not exceeded 78% on the year. We are really splitting hairs here as he has averaged a 72.6% snap share on the year but we could always have more! BTJ will continue to ascend this season as the year progresses and Vegas definitely in agreement as they have his receiving lines set at 57.5 receiving yards (2nd highest total in the game) with a 4.5 reception over/under and +170 anytime TD scorer odds (4th highest in the game).

Projection: 10 targets 6 receptions 97 yards 1TD

Brenton Strange

TE #13 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 6 fantasy points per game

No Vegas Over/Under - +260 Anytime TD Scorer (9th Highest in Game)

Strange has taken the place of Engram over the past four weeks and has done a serviceable job in attempting to replace his production. In Week 5, he had his highest snap share of the year at 84%. He is averaging 24 receiving yards (44.5 at home vs. 10.33 on the road) on 3.6 targets and 2.4 receptions with a .4 receiving TD average per game. For someone who you picked up off the streets basically, his TE #13 rank on the year in Half PPR scoring (6 fantasy points per game); is amazing in the current TE landscape when you might have spent a 7th round pick on Engram in the draft. With Engram trending in the right direction this week at practice, Vegas has not set a receiving line for Strange and gave him +260 anytime TD scoring odds which is the 9th highest in the game (right above Engram’s odds). I would imagine if Engram plays this week they will split time between the two which will most likely lead to a non-impactful fantasy week for both players.

Projection: 4 targets 3 receptions 27 yards

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Caleb Williams

QB #21 on the Year - 14.19 fantasy points per game

237.5 Passing Yards Over/Under (-114) - 1.5 Passing TD Over/Under (+118)

Full transparency, I have and still am a Caleb Williams hater. I thought he was overrated coming out of college and with the past run of USC QBs, I figured there was no way he would succeed. After the first two weeks, I was taking victory laps and declaring to the world how right I was. Maybe I should pump the brakes after his Week 5 performance but at this point I am pot committed (made a bet with a friend about his passing yardage total by the end of the season). I did see some flashes last week from Caleb where he has shown his growth as an NFL QB over the first 5 weeks. I also saw some plays that reinforced my initial assessment of him coming into the NFL Draft. He is averaging 218.2 passing yards (184.7 at home vs. 268.5 on the road) with 1TD and .8INTs per game this season. Right now he is the QB #21 on the year and is averaging 14.19 fantasy points per game. Starting with Week 3 he has shown improvement from where he started and a lot of that has to do with how effectively he has been running the ball as of late. Over the past two weeks he has averaged 5 rushing attempts and 23 rushing yards per game. We will absolutely take an additional 2.3 points per game added to his floor. This week I do think that the overseas trip to London as a rookie is going to be a little too much for him to handle, resulting in a step back in production.

Projection: 22/35 248 yards 2TD 1INT/6 attempts 30 yards

D’Andre Swift

RB #15 on the Year in Half PPR Scoring - 12.28 fantasy points per game

53.5 Rushing Yards Over/Under - 17.5 Receiving Yards Over/Under - 2.5 Receptions Over/Under - +115 Anytime TD Scorer (Highest Odds in Game)

What do we think about D’Andre Swift for the rest of the season? I was firmly in the camp that 2023 Swift was a product of the best O-Line in the league opening holes large enough for the Big Show to burst through for 7 yards per carry. Weeks 1 - 3 looked like that was the case as he averaged around 2 yards per carry through that time. Weeks 4 and 5 on the other hand have been a completely different world for Swift as he has averaged 83 rushing yards per game and has been the RB3 and RB2 in each week respectively. On the season, he is averaging 46.8 rushing yards (65.3 yards at home vs. 19 yards on the road) along with 33 receiving yards per game (39.7 yards at home vs. 23 yards on the road) on 3.8 targets and 3 receptions with .4 rushing TDs per game. He is the RB #15 on the year in Half PPR Scoring averaging 12.28 fantasy points per game even with his first three weeks totalling 16.4 combined fantasy points. With that said, the Jaguars have been a pass funnel defense as they rank dead last in pass defense but top 10 in run defense this year. Vegas believes that Swift should have a down game in terms of production this week, setting his rushing line at 53.5 (6.7 more than his average) and 17.5 receiving line (15.5 less than his average) with a +115 anytime TD scorer odds (highest in the game). I am going to disagree with Vegas slightly compared to their projections but do think Swift is in line to score again this week.

Projection: 15 attempts 50 yards 1TD/5 targets 3 receptions 38 yards

Roschon Johnson

RB #42 on the Year in Half PPR Scoring - 7.83 fantasy points per game

No Vegas Rushing Over/Under - +200 Anytime TD Scorer (6th Highest in Game)

The Bears had said that Roschon played well enough to earn more snaps and opportunities in games at the end of Week 3 where he outshined Swift on the ground and through the air. Since that game, Johnson has remained around 37% snap share and 8.5 opportunities a game while Swift has exploded. It was good to see Roschon take the majority of goalline opportunities last week (Swift had 1) but he is not seeing the field enough to be a full time fantasy option. Right now, he is averaging 20.25 rushing yards (25.5 yards at home vs. 15 yards on the road) and 8 receiving yards with .6 rushing TDs per game. He is the RB #42 on the year in Half PPR scoring averaging 7.83 fantasy points per game. He does look to be an elite handcuff as if Swift goes down (which he has battled injuries throughout his career), he will be an immediate plug and play. For now, he will continue to cap Swift’s upside as long as they continue to run him when they are in the red zone.

Projection: 5 attempts 19 yards

DJ Moore

WR #16 on the Year in Half PPR Scoring - 12.34 fantasy points per game

65.5 Receiving Yards Over/Under - 5.5 Receptions Over/Under - +155 Anytime TD Scorer (3rd Highest in Game)

DJ Moore is hard to gauge this season. He has been on the field at least 88% of the snaps and has received at least 6 targets in every game this year. He has scored three times total (.6 receiving TDs per game) and is averaging 58.8 receiving yards (53.3 yards at home vs. 65.5 yards on the road) on 8.4 targets and 5.4 receptions per game. On the year, this puts him as the WR #16 in Half PPR Scoring while averaging 12.34 fantasy points per game. With that said, he has only cracked the top 30 once this year in Week 5 where he went 8 targets 5 receptions 105 yards and 2 TDs. Outside of that, he has been the WR #44, 31, 33 and 36 from Weeks 1 - 4. Caleb Williams is improving and will hopefully look DJ Moore’s way as his first read but we need to wait to see how the offense looks with all three WRs on the field and fully healthy. When that happens, the issue is there are too many mouths to feed in this offense. Moore’ ceiling is capped by the fact that Rome and Keenan (more on this later) will both command some targets along with Swift and the sporadically used Cole Kmet. Vegas does think DJ Moore should have the highest receiving yards in this game (65.5 yard over/under with 5.5 receptions over/under) and has the third highest chance to score a TD at +155 odds. 

Projection: 9 targets 6 receptions 70 yards 1TD

Rome Odunze

WR #58 on the Year in Half PPR Scoring - 6.86 fantasy points per game

39.5 Receiving Yards Over/Under - 3.5 Receptions Over/Under - +280 Anytime TD Scorer (11th Highest in Game)

I was super high on Rome coming into this season and still wish that the Atlanta Falcons chose him with their 8th pick instead of Penix but that is another story. For now, Rome has been somewhat of a fantasy disappointment though it is to be expected playing with a rookie QB and behind two proven veterans. Still, by Week 2 Rome’s dad was calling out Caleb for not throwing him the ball so we might be looking at a Wide-Rediva situation here in the future. Through 5 weeks, Rome is averaging 41.2 receiving yards (20.3 yards at home vs. 72.5 yards on the road) on 5.8 targets and 3 receptions with .2 receiving TDs per game. That makes him the WR #58 on the year in Half PPR scoring with 6.86 fantasy points per game in 2024. While the stats are not the worst, we do hope for more coming from a top 10 pick. If we take a deeper look into the statistics they do paint a slightly different picture. Rome is within the top-25 WRs in separation score this year and has an impressive 12.83 yards per catch average. He is also tied with DJ Moore as the leader on the team for end zone targets this season. The problem comes down to Williams' progression as an NFL QB and the Bear’s offense not focusing on him as much. I do believe that will change as the year progresses on and look for Rome to have a good game this week.

Projection: 7 targets 5 receptions 67 yards 1TD

Kenan Allen

WR #98 on the Year in Half PPR Scoring - 4.36 fantasy points game

43.5 Receiving Yards Over/Under - 4.5 Receptions Over/Under - +200 Anytime TD Scorer (7th Highest in Game)

Keenan Allen is the old man in the WR room and has dealt with some early injuries that have delayed his progress integrating into the Bear’s offense. Although his fantasy statistics don’t show it (27 receiving yards on 6.7 targets and 3.3 receptions through three games), his deeper metrics show he is still an Alpha. He ranks in the top-10 of all WRs this year in Average Separation Score (according to a Fantasy Points article) and has received 21% of the target share and around 25% of the first read share. These are elite numbers and generally, production follows. Although he is WR #98 on the year in Half PPR scoring (averaging 4.36 fantasy points per game) but has dealt with injuries and an acclimating rookie QB under center. Vegas puts his odds to score at +200 this game (7th highest in the game) and an over/under of 43.5 receiving yards and 4.5 receptions. Allen will continue to improve as the year goes on and he remains healthy; I think we will see more of a split between the top 3 WRs and more of an inconsistent rollercoaster for fantasy production.

Projection: 8 targets 5 receptions 55 yards

FINAL SCORE: Jacksonville Jaguars 27 - Chicago Bears 24